People have started to provide the Broncos the same treatment the Steelers received last year. Critics have stated despite the Broncos 3-0 start, they believe it to be a little fraudulent as the teams they have faced are a combined 0-9 on the season so far. People called the Steelers fraudulent last year even when they started 11-0 and unfortunately, the Steelers proved the critics right going 1-4 their last 5 games against good teams such as the Bills and Browns, and even Washington for what its worth, finishing 12-4 and getting ran out of their own building in the wildcard vs the Browns 48-37 and were down 28-0. at one point in that game. Hopefully, the Broncos can squash those narratives with a win over the 2-1 Ravens who have been up and down this season so far but nevertheless a good team with the 2019 MVP on their side. I will provide 3 keys for the Broncos victory:
Jump On Them Early
The last thing the Broncos want is a Baltimore team playing ball control up 7-10 points and finishing the game quickly. Force Lamar Jackson to throw his way back into the game. However, he has gotten much better as a passer as he has thrown for 230+ yards each game this season. A feat he only did 3 times last year. Lamar's stats are not pretty passing as he has thrown for 3 TDs and 3 Int for 761 yards on 60.9% completion with a rating of 86.4. His stats do him no justice on his impact on a game because of his running ability and the SNF game vs the chiefs was a perfect example. Jackson has ran for 251 yards on 35 carries which is 7.17 ypc. He is a unique talent at QB that the Broncos must find a way to slow down. Getting to a 10-0 or 14-3 start will force the Ravens to throw more than they would like. One could argue that the ravens were able to comeback vs the chiefs down 35-24 in the 4th with the ground attack as Jackson ran for two TDs in the 4th to give them a lead over KC finishing the game with 107 yards on the ground. However, KC's defense has displayed the ability to give up the big play over and over again the first 3 weeks. Other than a few instances, the Broncos have done a good job limiting the big plays by the opponent. Denver has also never trailed significantly after once capturing a lead. It is not a guarantee the Broncos will win if they get off to a quick start but it definitely helps their chances.
2. Conservative Defensive Game Plan
The broncos will not get away with blitzing over and over again like they did against the Jets when they brought MLB Alexander Johnson multiple times to rush the QB enabling him to have 2 sacks, a career high. The Broncos need to come into the game with a bend don‘t break philosophy. It is unrealistic to expect the Broncos defense, no matter how great they are, to take away the run game of Baltimore because their defense, such as many other defenses throughout the league, are not built to stop the ravens. The ravens' run game is off of pistol formations and other unique methods; not the prototypical style of running 12 or 13 personnel and pounding the rock down the middle. The way the ravens run the ball is so dangerous because of the big play potential. If you stack the box, their pistol formation enables the running backs and Lamar Jackson to reach the outside of the tackle box easily. Lamar Jackson is lethal against the Blitz as an article in 2019 stated Jackson had 22 pass TDs vs the Blitz which led the NFL since 2016 and he came in the league in 2018. He has a lot more now. The ravens run a lot of crossing routes which is very effective against cover 1 and against the blitz because it forces the defender to keep up with the speed of the Hollywood Brown and Sammy Watkins which is no easy task. The Broncos are better off giving up runs that go 7-8 yards many times rather than giving up a 70 yard TD here and then a 40 yard run there. Limit the explosive runs! That is certainly easier said than done but here is how they can do it. The Broncos can play Cover 4 which will send 4 pass rushers to the QB and have 3 middle linebackers 2 of which who will guard the flat routes playing either the running back or tight-end which would takeaway Jackson's easy check downs outside the numbers and force him to throw in the middle of the defense where there would be one MLB patrolling that area. There will be 2 corners sinking as deep as the safeties essentially having 4 men deep which is why it is called cover 4. If Jackson wants to throw outside the number he must fit it in between the linebacker in the flat and the corner back deep. His best options would be to throw it in the middle of the field where there is only one linebacker. If the Broncos run cover 4 a lot, ps2 can be utilized as a mlb as Callahan and Fuller can be the 2 main corners that sink. Obviously, the Broncos can't play cover 4 every down but they should be very zone heavy and make Lamar read the whole field. Zone concepts also are very effective against crossing routes. If the Broncos want to bring the Blitz, they should be creative and maybe bring a delayed blitz by a corner or show the typical 4 pass rush look with 2 mlb behind them and drop miller and reed and send AJ Johnson and Strnad on a blitz. Either way, Fangio needs to be creative with his defensive game plan.
3. Give Them a Taste of Their Own Medicine
Whoever wins time of possession in this game will most likely come out victorious. We all know Baltimore loves to play ball control as they are ranked 11th in time of possession, which is a little surprising, but in the game they beat KC they held the ball for 36 minutes leaving the chiefs with 24 making them most dangerous when they play keep away. Denver, though, is ranked number 1 in time of possession which allows the Broncos defense to rest and limits the possessions of the opposing offenses which force them to be more aggressive than they initially want which leads to turnovers against this Denver Defense. Winning TOP will force the ravens to play a style of football they are not comfortable with and if that happens the broncos will get closer to a victory.They must sustain long drives which will not be enough as the Broncos need to finish off those drives with TDs as well and their red-zone offense the last 2 games has not been great but I am confident they will figure it out. I am excited for this game and go Broncos!
Prediction:
Teddy: 70% completion with 250+ yards and 1 TD
Melvin and Javonte: 130+ yards and 2TDs combined
Defense: 3 Sacks and 1 crucial turnover at the end of the game
Broncos win 24-20
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