The Broncos will go to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs on the national stage this Sunday as they look to beat Kansas City for the first time since week 2 2015. They have lost 11 straight times to their divisional foes and must find a way to avoid making it 12. The winner of this game will be the placeholder for first place in the division. Here are some ways the Broncos can pull of the upset on Sunday Night:
Long Drives!
The Broncos cannot be in a shootout with the Chiefs so they must sustain long drives and keep the ball out of Mahomes's hands. They do not necessarily have to win time of possession but they must cash in for scores whenever they do have a long drive. A 10, 11 play drive that lasts 7 minutes will mean nothing if the drive ends in a turnover or a punt. They must finish off drives with TDs and especially in the red-zone where they were 3/3 last week vs the Chargers. Also, sustaining long drives mean they must convert on 3rd downs like they did vs the Chargers where they went 8/11. The conversion rate must be similar to that this Sunday as well which I know is a lot to ask for but it needs to be done in order to get a win in Kansas City. The Broncos must also make the Chiefs methodically go down the field like many other teams have done this year. The theme for the Chiefs offense this year has been impatience at times and when they are forced to slowly drive down the field, the y usually make mistakes ending their drives in turnovers. Patrick Mahomes has not been his usual self the last 7 weeks. He started out the season hot his first 4 games throwing for 14 TDs and 4 INT. However, the last 7 weeks he has thrown 11 TDs and 7 INTs and that is even with throwing for 5 TDs and no INTs against the raiders a few weeks ago. If it were not for that game the stats could have looked a lot worse. So overall the key is to sustain long drives on offense and to make the Chiefs Offense do the same while on defense
2. Ground and Pound Once Again!
The Chiefs have played much better on defense during their 4 game winning streak but they still are suspect against the run. They are the middle of the pack when it comes to run defense giving up 111.6 yards per game. KC has not really played some run heavy teams. the Only ones that come to mind are the Cowboys, Titans, Ravens, Browns and Eagles and we can throw the eagles game out because that game was early in the season before the eagles found their identity of being a running football team. So 4/11 teams they played were a serious threat running the ball. They gave given up 147.25 yards per game to those 4 teams. The stats are a little bit skewed because more than 2/3 of the total yardage came in their first 2 games vs the Browns and Ravens who are quite possibly the 2 best running teams in the league. They did hold Tennessee to 103 yards rushing and Dallas to 82 yards. However they lost 27-3 to the Titans who picked them apart passing because they loaded the box to stop Henry which I do not believe they will do vs Williams and Gordon. Dallas was held to 82 yards but they only ran 16 times because they were trailing most of the game so when they did run they were pretty successful averaging 5.125 yards a clip. If Denver can avoid a 10-0 14-0 deficit, they can really do some damage on the ground. Over the course of a game, when a defense gets tired, a back like Javonte Williams is perfect to have as he will start breaking tackles gaining extra yardage on plays which could be big down the stretch. Denver isn't greatest running team as they are 14th averaging 114.7 yards per game but it seems like they are finding their identity and beginning to understand they are a run first teams as that mentality has helped beat 2 quality opponents in the Cowboys and Chargers where they averaged 168.5 yards per game in their last 2 wins.
3. Neutralize KC's Pass Rush!
Chris Jones has seemed to return to form coming off a game where he had 3.5 sacks and made some great plays against the run and forced multiple turnovers in their win against the Cowboys. Denver must limit his impact. One way of doing that is to run the ball heavily as stated up above but another way to do it is to throw screens, quick slants, etc.. and we saw a lot of that vs LA and that really negated Joey Bosa's impact and who knows maybe Teddy will stiff arm Chris Jones and throw a for TD in this game as well. The Chiefs love to blitz especially on 3rd down. However they have only sacked other QBs 11 times. So they have not been able to get home a lot and have relied on the blitz so the screen game is going to be paramount to counter the extra rushers.
Andy Reid is 19-3 coming off a bye so it will be a very tough test but I believe this team can get it done. Let’s go!
Predictions:
Broncos 31-28
Teddy: 200 yards 2 TDS
Running Backs: 150+ yards 2 TD
Defense: 3 sacks 1 INT
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