The Wolves stole the first 2 games in Denver, they're gonna sweep the Nuggets! Oh wait, the Nuggets have won 3 straight, Nuggets in 6! My goodness, the Wolves just beat the Nuggets by 45 points in game 6!! Now we're here. The 2 most anxiety-raising words in sports. Game Seven. This is why the NBA playoffs are so much fun. When your team wins a game, you feel like they won't lose for the rest of the series. When your team loses, you feel hopeless and wonder how they are going to win any more games at all in their current series.
Game 6 was just awful for the Nuggets as it felt like nothing went right for them. Denver shot 30% from the floor and 19% from 3 in game 6 and ended the game with a season-low 70 points. Watching that game, the Nuggets just couldn't hit a shot at all. I give props to Minnesota for playing stifling defense throughout the game but Denver missed a lot of wide-open shots. Especially Jamal Murray who was 4/18 from the floor with just 10 points. The Bench for Denver did not score even one point until late in the 3rd quarter. It was just one of those weird games where one bad thing snowballed into another and then it turned into an Avalanche. This is a game where, offensively, you just flush the tape and move on to the next. Defensively, I would say there is a bit more nuance to it. The Wolves did a great job getting KAT in the post with a smaller defender which forced Denver to double team and to KAT's credit made the right play as the Wolves moved the ball around effectively finding the open shooters which led to guys like Jaden McDaniels scoring 21 points and shooting 3/5 from deep. I'm confident Malone and crew will make the necessary adjustments to avoid being in those situations often in game 7.
One thing that is slightly concerning to me is the play of Jamal Murray. He has not shot the ball well at all this series as he is averaging around 15.6 points per game shooting just 38% from the field and is only hitting 1/3 of his threes which isn't very good. What's even more concerning is how he has been carrying himself off the court this entire series. In game 2 we know about the whole heat pad situation where he threw it onto the court. However, after this last game, he was asked about how much Anthony Edwards's defense has impacted him at all these series and Murray responded with "Who?" and then went on to talk about his elbow injury which just isn't a good look. I would've loved to see Murray give Edwards credit and look forward to the challenge in game 7 but it feels like he's getting in his own head and that may be impacting the way he is playing on the court. If Denver has any shot to repeat, Murray has to get back to form and it needs to start game 7.
Despite the concerns, this is why beating Minnesota in that late regular season game in April was so pivotal. Denver has home court and I feel like that matters so much for the role players. Jokic and Ant will do their thing regardless of where they play but in game 7, every missed or made shot feels like a dagger and when things may look like they are about to unravel, the crowd can instill that confidence in a player and that is huge especially for the younger players like MPJ, Braun, Peyton Watson, if he gets any playing time. This is all pure speculation from me as obviously I have never played in such games but given what I see and know year after year, home court in game 7 matters a lot because the scoring is usually low and the defense is normally the driving force in these kind of games. Defense comes from energy and the energy comes from the crowd.
I expect an intense low-scoring game and in the end, the Nuggets will prevail on the shoulders of Nikola Jokic and reach the WCF for the second straight year. This is going to be one hell of a game 7!
Prediction: 96-92 Nuggets
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